Given the historic and potential future role of disruptive events for Arctic development trajectories, methods are needed in participatory scenario exercises to include attention to the dynamics and consequences of such events and regime shifts. These include attention to whose voices are amplified or silenced in participatory research practices, with special attention to diversification and the engagement of youth. Yet, to achieve this potential, several methodological challenges need to be addressed. They have the potential to contribute to several high-priority tasks for Arctic research, such as integration of indigenous and local knowledge in futures studies, providing a platform for activating Arctic youth in shaping their futures, identifying Arctic-relevant indicators for sustainable development, and supporting decision-making towards sustainable futures. Participatory scenario methodologies are increasingly used for studying possible future developments in the Arctic. We furthermore highlight a need for initiatives that can support bottom–up processes for identifying locally relevant indicators for sustainable development that could serve as a way to engage Arctic residents and other regional and local actors in shaping the future of the region and local communities, within a global sustainability context. Issues brought up by the SDG framework that need more attention in Arctic monitoring include gender, and food and energy security. We especially highlight a need for additional attention to demography, including outmigration indigenous rights Arctic-relevant measures of economic development and social capital and institutions that can support adaptation and transformation in this rapidly changing region. Based on earlier and ongoing efforts to identify Arctic Social Indicators for monitoring human development, insights from scenario workshops and interviews at various locations in the Barents region and Greenland and on studies of adaptive capacity and resilience in the Arctic, we provide an exploratory assessment of the global SDGs and indicators from an Arctic perspective. However, perceptions of sustainability are scale and place specific, and there has also been a call for Sustainable Development Goals and indicators that are more relevant for the Arctic than the global perspectives. Since the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were adopted in 2015, efforts are underway to identify indicators for monitoring progress. Such a system could be used for evaluating different policy options and their outcomes as they relate to resilience. In addition, our analysis highlights the need to create indicators that could be used to monitor and assess the status of different aspects of adaptive and transformative capacity and how they are developing over time. However, little is known about the practical implications of Arctic Council activities for building adaptive capacity on the ground. One conclusion is that major efforts have been made to increase knowledge about both environmental and social processes in the Arctic. Strengthen adaptive and transformative capacity, given the rapid ongoing social and environmental changes in The chapter also reviewed how various reports commissioned by the Arctic Council relate to the need to An example of such supporting structures are well-functioning institutions. It also shows that adaptive capacity is a latent property of a social-ecological system that requires supporting structures to ensure it can be activated. Highlights how different facets of adaptive capacity are interlinked and should be viewed as bundles of resources that complement one another.
Using the categorizations of sources forĪdaptive and transformative capacity developed for the Interim Report (natural capital, social capital, humanĬapital, infrastructure, financial capital, knowledge assets and cultural capital) as a starting point, the chapter Transformative capacity, and consequently resilience, in the Arctic. This chapter has reviewed possible ways for the Arctic Council to contribute to strengthening adaptive and
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